Methodology

Overview

This site is an experimental conflict dashboard that summarizes public reporting into a single temperature score per tracked conflict. The score is a transparent house heuristic for escalation pressure—not a probability, a scientific measurement, or a professional assessment.

Data Sources

Inputs come from curated public RSS feeds and query-based public news syndication endpoints. Sources are normalized, deduplicated, and link-checked so removed or inaccessible items can be marked without silently dropping historical traceability.

Source quality is weighted using domain/source profiles so a single low-credibility outlet cannot dominate model output. The pipeline favors corroboration across distinct publishers before allowing large score movement.

Signal Categories

Each conflict has a fixed set of weighted signal categories, such as force posture, strike tempo, official rhetoric, and diplomatic offset indicators. Category definitions live in configuration and are evaluated on each refresh run using keyword markers in headlines and feed summaries plus recency weighting. The bounded scoring pool keeps limited representation for each category so a burst of one headline type cannot crowd out every other signal.

Temperature Calculation

Factor signals are scored on a 0-100 scale, multiplied by hand-chosen weights, and combined into a single temperature number. Smoothing, corroboration damping, and low-evidence controls try to reduce false spikes caused by sparse or repetitive coverage. These choices are not scientifically calibrated or independently validated.

Recent evidence can raise temperature quickly when multiple trusted sources align, while cooling is generally constrained to avoid unrealistic whiplash between refreshes. This keeps the dashboard responsive without behaving like a headline counter.

Confirmed attacks count more than contingency plans or rhetoric. During an active strike campaign, several fresh reports from distinct credible sources can establish a hot evidence floor, while meaningful calming evidence disables it. The KINDA label alone never creates a temperature floor.

The HEATING, COOLING, or STEADY direction compares the current score with the latest prior daily high. The history chart separately shows older peaks, so being below a past high does not by itself mean the situation is currently cooling.

Conflict Status Categories

Status labels (`NO`, `KINDA`, `YES`) are separate from temperature. Status reflects editorial classification from public evidence thresholds, while temperature reflects model-estimated pressure for further escalation.

YES is used only when reporting supports a confirmed, sustained invasion or occupation campaign. War labels, strikes, or direct conflict alone do not qualify. That usually means troops are physically operating across the border and remain there beyond a brief raid or isolated incursion.KINDA is used when meaningful hostile action occurs without that sustained full-threshold condition, such as active strike exchanges, direct clashes, serious blockade-like coercion, or very brief ground incidents.

That means a conflict can be KINDA and still show a cool temperature if follow-on escalation signals weaken.