Is the US at War with Iran?
Not a full invasion — but conflict activity is underway.
US–Iran tensions remain elevated across the region, with proxy conflict, military posturing, and periodic escalation keeping the risk alive even when direct war is not.
Snapshot refreshed: 3/22/2026, 9:54:23 PM
Briefing Summary
Regional flashpoints can spike quickly, but near-term full invasion probability remains low.
The US-Iran conflict is monitored due to its potential to disrupt global oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, involve regional allies like Israel and Saudi Arabia, and escalate into broader Middle East instability amid ongoing military strikes.
Current status is KINDA and the escalation temperature is 95%. Status is a discrete threshold call, while temperature reflects model-estimated pressure from cumulative signals.
- 2026-03-22 - Iran War Live Updates: Tehran Is Defiant After Trump Threatens Power PlantsNYT World
- 2026-02-28 - US and Israeli forces launched nearly 900 airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure, nuclear sites, and leadership, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei; Iran retaliated with missile and drone strikes on Israel and US bases.Britannica
- 2026-02-27 - US President Trump ordered the launch of Operation Epic Fury from Air Force One.Wikipedia
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